I recently built an interactive dashboard analyzing venture capital performance across several of the most well-known firms in the industry:

Across 49 individual funds, I analyzed the key performance metrics LPs actually care about:

• Net TVPI

• DPI

• IRR

The dataset spans multiple vintages and captures both early-stage and growth vehicles. When you look at it collectively, a clear pattern begins to emerge.

Scale compresses returns.

Not in theory. In practice.

You can explore the dashboard here: https://valueaddvc.com/vc-performance

Venture capital has always been a power-law business. A handful of companies generate the majority of returns.

That reality works beautifully when funds are smaller. A $200M fund that owns meaningful stakes in a few breakout companies can produce extraordinary multiples.

But as funds grow into the billions, the math begins to shift.

The same outcome simply moves the needle less.

A $5B fund needs vastly larger exit outcomes, far more ownership, or a higher number of winners to achieve the same multiples that smaller funds can generate with fewer hits.

This is not a criticism of large funds. It is simply the arithmetic of venture capital.

Looking across these firms and vintages, several patterns become visible.

1. Early funds often produce the highest multiples

Many firms generate their strongest TVPI and IRR in earlier vintages when fund sizes were smaller and ownership levels were higher.

2. Larger funds tend to show lower TVPI

As capital scales, gross outcomes may remain strong, but multiples compress.

A $10B outcome can still be a spectacular company. But if the fund is large enough, even great exits become diluted in their impact.

3. DPI takes longer in larger vehicles

Larger portfolios, later-stage investments, and longer holding periods delay distributions.

LPs waiting for realized cash may find that DPI builds more slowly as funds scale.

This dynamic creates a subtle but important question for limited partners.

Do you optimize for access to the largest platforms in venture capital, with brand, scale, and deal flow?

Or do you seek out smaller funds that may have a greater chance of producing higher multiples?

In reality, most LP portfolios include both. Large firms often provide consistency and access to iconic companies. Smaller funds sometimes offer the possibility of outsized performance.

The portfolio construction challenge is deciding how to balance the two.

Over the last decade, venture capital firms have increasingly evolved into asset managers.

Multi-billion dollar funds, crossover strategies, growth vehicles, crypto funds, and platform services have all expanded the scope of what these firms do.

This evolution brings real advantages. Larger platforms can support founders with recruiting, marketing, and partnerships in ways that smaller firms cannot.

But the tradeoff is mathematical.

As funds scale, maintaining the same return profile becomes more difficult.

For the last several years, venture capital fundraising operated in a regime of abundant liquidity.

Mega-funds became the norm.

Today the environment is different. LPs are more selective, distributions have slowed, and many investors are reconsidering how venture portfolios should be constructed.

Understanding how scale affects returns is becoming increasingly important.

The numbers do not tell the whole story. But they do highlight something that many people in the industry already sense intuitively.

In venture capital, size changes the game.

https://valueaddvc.com/vc-performance

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