My 10 Predictions for AI in 2026

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1) VC rebounds ~30%, pushing global fundraising back toward $100B+.
After two uneven years, venture capital meaningfully rebounds as LPs regain confidence in AI-led outcomes. More than 50% of new venture dollars flow into AI-related companies, with capital concentrating further into fewer funds and fewer platforms. Generalist funds continue to face headwinds, while specialist and thesis-driven funds raise faster, deploy with conviction, and capture disproportionate ownership.

2) Enterprise AI moves from pilots to production at scale.
By the end of 2026, 50+ Fortune 500 companies move AI beyond experimentation and into core, revenue-impacting workflows. Enterprise AI adoption reaches 85–90%, driven by clearer ROI, maturing infrastructure, and improved trust and security controls. AI budgets increasingly resemble core IT spend rather than innovation line items.

3) Vertical AI dominates the early stage.
Annual Vertical AI funding exceeds $7–10B, as investors prioritize companies embedded in real industries rather than horizontal tools. Defense, cybersecurity, healthcare, compliance, logistics, and industrial automation absorb the majority of early-stage capital. Founders with domain expertise and workflow ownership consistently outperform model-first or generic AI startups.

4) Big Tech exceeds $500B+ in AI infrastructure spend.
Hyperscalers collectively invest over $500B annually across data centers, networking, silicon, power generation, and cooling. Demand continues to exceed supply, forcing deeper partnerships with chipmakers, utilities, and energy providers. Overflow workloads increasingly shift to neo-clouds and specialized infrastructure operators to meet enterprise and government demand.

5) The AI chip ecosystem expands, not consolidates.
Compute remains the system bottleneck, sustaining funding for a broad chip ecosystem. Cerebras reaches the public markets, while Groq and Lambda raise additional large rounds to scale inference and AI-native cloud capacity. Dozens of smaller startups focused on optimized inference, edge workloads, power efficiency, and defense use cases successfully raise capital alongside incumbents.

6) Edge AI becomes real at scale for the first time.
Edge and IoT deployments accelerate meaningfully after years of promise. Advances in specialized chips and power efficiency remove prior constraints, enabling real-time AI decision-making in defense systems, factories, logistics networks, and mobile devices. The cloud remains massive, but hybrid architectures become the default for latency- and safety-critical applications.

7) Agent-to-agent systems move into production.
AI agents evolve beyond copilots into coordinated systems executing real workflows across enterprises. Dozens of large organizations deploy multi-agent systems across procurement, compliance, security, and operations. This creates new demand for orchestration platforms, identity layers, audit trails, and hard shutdown mechanisms as AI autonomy increases.

8) Cybersecurity and defense AI continue to boom.
Cybersecurity and defense become foundational layers of AI adoption rather than standalone sectors. Companies like Anduril, Palantir, and a growing cohort of startups scale rapidly as AI is treated as critical infrastructure tied to national sovereignty. Annual funding in cyber and defense AI surpasses $25B, driven by both government and enterprise buyers.

9) Tech M&A accelerates meaningfully.
Following $100B+ in tech acquisitions in 2025, consolidation accelerates further in 2026. Expect 2–3 mega-deals exceeding $25B each, focused on AI infrastructure, cybersecurity platforms, and verticalized enterprise software. Buying capability proves faster and more reliable than internal builds as time-to-relevance compresses.

10) AI valuations remain extreme — and one breaks publicly.
Elite AI teams continue to raise $100M+ rounds at multi-billion-dollar valuations, often pre-product, as capital remains concentrated at the top. At the same time, dependency on continuous funding increases fragility. One highly visible AI company fails to raise again or execute commercially, resetting expectations without slowing overall AI adoption.

Let me know what you think!

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